Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.718548 3.736461 5.195246 7.517708 1.128197e+01 17.456663 29.100965
2025-03-16 1.750656 2.768629 4.532029 8.077253 1.582194e+01 34.449013 94.357369
2025-03-23 1.248376 2.213063 4.175888 9.070450 2.360345e+01 78.791104 478.984393
2025-03-30 0.917552 1.787488 3.819620 10.006255 3.524288e+01 203.997346 5710.701085
2025-04-06 0.649612 1.353177 3.171709 9.643608 4.443462e+01 469.656209 403915.153272
2025-04-13 0.465341 1.019573 2.568701 8.829112 5.188398e+01 1079.527467 NaN
2025-04-20 0.370523 0.860331 2.361307 9.460982 7.790385e+01 5792.686657 NaN
2025-04-27 0.312487 0.770624 2.319246 11.074114 1.417850e+02 218737.275658 NaN
2025-05-04 0.269151 0.702389 2.312356 13.250312 2.910593e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.227038 0.618443 2.184004 14.561045 5.442272e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.185219 0.517529 1.907100 13.995438 7.711510e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.150216 0.426501 1.614936 12.621472 9.216683e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.130390 0.383344 1.541462 13.918848 2.151590e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.113254 0.343078 1.454238 14.996072 5.518885e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.100706 0.315114 1.415915 17.034198 2.449427e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.089633 0.288513 1.365554 18.979789 1.965263e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.077048 0.251127 1.216645 18.083097 7.810807e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.065800 0.215777 1.057396 16.249935 1.842751e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.059395 0.198885 1.013966 17.544362 6.787120e+11 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.055249 0.190289 1.024220 21.011427 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.051831 0.183694 1.045889 25.860137 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.047702 0.172340 1.019679 28.834131 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.042664 0.155087 0.929030 27.465828 NaN NaN NaN